The disclosed embodiments relate generally to a system and method for improving the operability of a print production environment and, more particularly to an improved approach for forecasting demand in an environment where both low variability and high variability print jobs are processed.
Document production environments, such as print shops, convert printing orders, such as print jobs, into finished printed material. A print shop may process print jobs using resources such as printers, cutters, collators and other similar equipment. Typically, resources in print shops are organized such that when a print job arrives from a customer at a particular print shop, the print job can be processed by performing one or more production functions.
In one example of print shop operation, product variety (e.g., the requirements of a given job) can be low, and the associated steps for a significant number of jobs might consist of printing, inserting, sorting and shipping. In another example, product variety (corresponding, for instance, with job size) can be quite high and the equipment used to process these jobs (e.g. continuous feed machines and inserting equipment) can require a high changeover time. Experience working with some very large print shops has revealed that print demand exhibits a tremendous variety of time series behavior. High variability in such large print shop environments can result from large volumes, and may be manifested in what is sometimes referred to as “fat-tailed” or “heavy-tailed” distributions.
Forecasting demand for a given large print shop can be useful in, among other things, managing shop resources. However, traditional approaches of forecasting (as found in associated literature) may be insufficient to suitably forecast demand in large print shops with considerable print job variability. For instance, in literature relating to forecasting a preference toward using pooled demand forecast (as opposed to forecasting components individually and summing the forecasts to obtain an aggregate forecast) has been expressed. It has been found, however, that pooled demand forecasting can break down in, among other environments, print production environments when the job related demand exhibits relatively high levels of variability.
In one aspect of the disclosed embodiments there is disclosed a print demand forecasting system for use with a print production system in which multiple print jobs are processed over a selected time interval. The print demand forecasting system includes: a data collection tool, said data collection tool collecting print demand data for each print job processed during the selected time interval; mass memory for storing the collected print demand data; and a computer implemented service manager for processing the stored print demand data to obtain a first demand series with two or more demand components and a second demand series with one demand component, each one of the two or more demand components being less than a selected variability level and the one demand component being greater than the selected variability level, said computer implemented service manager being adapted to (1) generate a first demand related forecast with a combination of the two or more demand components, and (2) generate a second demand related forecast with the one demand component if convergent forecasting results are obtainable for the second demand series.
In another aspect of the disclosed embodiments there is disclosed a computer implemented method for use with a print production system where multiple print jobs are processed over a selected time interval. The method includes: (A) collecting print demand data for each print job processed during the selected time interval; (B) storing the collected print demand data in memory; (C) processing the stored print demand data to obtain a first demand series with two or more demand components and a second demand series with one demand component, each one of the two or more demand components being less than a selected variability level and the one demand component being greater than the selected variability level; (D) generating a first demand related forecast with a computer, the first demand related forecast being obtained with a combination of the two or more demand components; (E) generating a second demand related forecast with the computer, the second demand related forecast being obtained with the one demand component; and (F) using at least one of the first and second demand related forecasts to improve operability of the print production system.